Abstract
Climate change has significantly influenced water resource patterns in arid regions. Applying effective water-saving measures to improve irrigation efficiency and evaluate their future water-saving capabilities is crucial for ensuring the sustainable development of irrigation agriculture. Based on the daily meteorological data from 15 global climate models (GCMs) in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study used the AquaCrop model to perform high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) grid simulations of cotton yields and irrigation requirements. The study also investigated the ability of film-mulched drip irrigation (FMDI) to improve future irrigation efficiency under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), Central Asia, from 2025 to 2100. The results showed that the cotton yield and irrigation water productivity (WPI) in the TRB exhibited an upward trend of 13.82 kg/ha/decade (80.68 kg/ha/decade) and 0.015 kg/m3/decade (0.068 kg/m3/decade), respectively, during the study period. The cotton yield and WPI were higher in the northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin areas, where they reach over 4000 kg/ha and 0.8 kg/m3/decade. However, the cotton yield and WPI were lower in the southwestern part of the study area. Therefore, large-scale cotton production was not recommended there. Furthermore, compared to flood irrigation, the use of FMDI can, on average, improve the WPI by approx. 25% and reduce irrigation water requirements by more than 550 m3/ha. Therefore, using FMDI can save a substantial amount of irrigation water in cotton production, which is beneficial for improving irrigation efficiency and ensuring the future stable production of cotton in the TRB. The research results provide a scientific reference for the efficient utilization and management of water resources for cotton production in the TRB and in similar arid regions elsewhere in the world.
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Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
Projected cotton yield rose 13.82 and 80.68 kg/ha/decade across the two pathways.
- Taxon
- cotton
Gossypium hirsutume0 - Outcome
- cotton yielde0
- Direction
- upward trende0
- Value
- 13.82 kg/ha/decade (80.68 kg/ha/decade)e0
- Setting
- TRBe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The results showed that the cotton yield and irrigation water productivity (WPI) in the TRB exhibited an upward trend of 13.82 kg/ha/decade (80.68 kg/ha/decade) and 0.015 kg/m3/decade (0.068 kg/m3/decade), respectively, during the study period.”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected cotton water productivity rose 0.015 and 0.068 kg/m3/decade across pathways.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- irrigation water productivity (WPI)e0
- Direction
- upward trende0
- Value
- 0.015 kg/m3/decade (0.068 kg/m3/decade)e0
- Setting
- TRBe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The results showed that the cotton yield and irrigation water productivity (WPI) in the TRB exhibited an upward trend of 13.82 kg/ha/decade (80.68 kg/ha/decade) and 0.015 kg/m3/decade (0.068 kg/m3/decade), respectively, during the study period.”
Claim · model-written summary
Cotton yield exceeded 4000 kg/ha in northern and northeastern areas.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- cotton yielde0
- Direction
- highere0
- Value
- over 4000 kg/hae0
- Setting
- northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin arease0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The cotton yield and WPI were higher in the northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin areas, where they reach over 4000 kg/ha and 0.8 kg/m3/decade.”
Claim · model-written summary
Cotton water productivity reached 0.8 kg/m3/decade in northern and northeastern areas.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- WPIe0
- Direction
- highere0
- Value
- 0.8 kg/m3/decadee0
- Setting
- northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin arease0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The cotton yield and WPI were higher in the northern, northwestern plains, and northeastern intermountain basin areas, where they reach over 4000 kg/ha and 0.8 kg/m3/decade.”
Claim · model-written summary
Cotton yield and water productivity were lower in the southwest.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- cotton yield and WPIe0
- Direction
- lowere0
- Setting
- southwestern part of the study areae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“However, the cotton yield and WPI were lower in the southwestern part of the study area.”
Claim · model-written summary
Large-scale cotton production was not recommended in the southwest.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- large-scale cotton production was not recommendede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Therefore, large-scale cotton production was not recommended there.”
Claim · model-written summary
FMDI increased cotton water productivity by about 25% versus flood irrigation.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- FMDIe0
- Outcome
- WPIe0
- Direction
- improvee0
- Value
- approx. 25%e0
- Comparator
- flood irrigatione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“compared to flood irrigation, the use of FMDI can, on average, improve the WPI by approx. 25% and reduce irrigation water requirements by more than 550 m3/ha.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
FMDI reduced cotton irrigation requirement by more than 550 m3/ha versus flood irrigation.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- FMDIe0
- Outcome
- irrigation water requirementse0
- Direction
- reducee0
- Value
- more than 550 m3/hae0
- Comparator
- flood irrigatione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“compared to flood irrigation, the use of FMDI can, on average, improve the WPI by approx. 25% and reduce irrigation water requirements by more than 550 m3/ha.”
t0“Cotton”
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See all 18 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.