Paper · 2020 · Environmental Research Letters

Contrasting yield responses of winter and spring wheat to temperature rise in China

Di He; Shibo Fang; Hanyue Liang; et al.

7
claims
13
verbatim quotes
49
citations
3
research areas
✓
Open access · cc-by

Abstract

Abstract Wheat growth, development, and grain yield are affected by global climate warming. The general consensus is that global warming shortens the overall length of wheat growing period and reduces global wheat yield. Here, focusing on China, the largest wheat producer in the world, we show that warming increases wheat yield in most winter wheat growing regions in China. We collated data from field experiments under stress-free conditions and artificial warming from 12 locations over China to assess the impact of warming on wheat yield. The data cover 14 wheat cultivars, 27 site-years, and a range of growing season temperatures from 7.5 °C to 17.2 °C. Our results indicate that warming up to +3 °C increased winter wheat yield by 5.8% per °C (change rate of yield/average of yield), while reduced spring wheat yield by 16.1% per °C. Although artificial warming reduced the total growth duration, warming-induced longer early developmental phases and grain filling duration, and subsequently more and larger grains contributed to the yield increase of winter wheat. The yield decline of spring wheat was due to the opposite changes of those key processes in response to temperature rise.

Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record; open copy licensed cc-by. Read at the source ↗

The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.

Claims 7

Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Warming up to +3 °C increased winter wheat yield by 5.8% per °C.

Material
winter wheate0
Treatment
warming up to +3 °Ce0
Outcome
yielde0
Direction
increasede0
Value
5.8% per °Ce0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“warming up to +3 °C increased winter wheat yield by 5.8% per °C”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 689–752 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Warming reduced spring wheat yield by 16.1% per °C.

Material
spring wheate0
Treatment
warminge1
Outcome
yielde0
Direction
reducede0
Value
16.1% per °Ce0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“while reduced spring wheat yield by 16.1% per °C”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 794–842 · show in text ↑
t0

“wheat to temperature rise”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 49–74 · show in text ↑
e1

“warming up to +3 °C increased winter wheat yield by 5.8% per °C”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 689–752 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Artificial warming shortened total wheat growth duration.

Treatment
artificial warminge0
Outcome
total growth duratione0
Direction
reducede0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“artificial warming reduced the total growth duration”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 853–905 · show in text ↑
t0

“wheat to temperature rise”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 49–74 · show in text ↑
e1

“warming up to +3 °C increased winter wheat yield by 5.8% per °C”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 689–752 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Warming lengthened early developmental phases in winter wheat.

Treatment
warminge0
Outcome
early developmental phasese0
Direction
longere0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“warming-induced longer early developmental phases and grain filling duration”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 907–983 · show in text ↑
t0

“winter and spring wheat”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 31–54 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Warming lengthened winter wheat grain filling duration.

Treatment
warminge0
Outcome
grain filling duratione0
Direction
longere0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“warming-induced longer early developmental phases and grain filling duration”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 907–983 · show in text ↑
t0

“winter and spring wheat”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 31–54 · show in text ↑
Mechanismauthor interpretationoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

More and larger grains contributed to increased winter wheat yield.

Organ / stage
grainse0
Outcome
yield increasee0
Qualifier
more and larger grainse0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“subsequently more and larger grains contributed to the yield increase of winter wheat”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 989–1074 · show in text ↑
Mechanismauthor interpretationoriginal resultnegativemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Opposite developmental and grain changes accounted for the spring wheat yield decline.

Treatment
temperature risee0
Outcome
yield declinee0
Qualifier
opposite changes of those key processese0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“The yield decline of spring wheat was due to the opposite changes of those key processes in response to temperature rise”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1076–1196 · show in text ↑

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heat · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results

309 papers: 54 positive, 255 negative or no effect

53 papers in the same direction as this paper · 255 in the opposite direction

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Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.