Abstract
Higher temperatures caused by future climate change will bring more frequent heat stress events and pose an increasing risk to global wheat production. Crop models have been widely used to simulate future crop productivity but are rarely tested with observed heat stress experimental datasets. Four wheat models (DSSAT-CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, APSIM-Wheat, and WheatGrow) were evaluated with 4 years of environment-controlled phytotron experimental datasets with two wheat cultivars under heat stress at anthesis and grain filling stages. Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size, while heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains. The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress. For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30. The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase in GPC due to heat stress. Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis. Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis. The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies.
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Claims 12
Claim · model-written summary
Heat stress at anthesis reduced grain number and grain size.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivumt0 - Treatment
- Heat stress at anthesise0
- Outcome
- grain numbers per unit area and individual grain sizee0
- Direction
- reducede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size”
Claim · model-written summary
Heat stress during grain filling decreased grain size.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- heat stress during grain fillinge0
- Outcome
- size of the individual grainse0
- Direction
- decreasede0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains”
Claim · model-written summary
Heat stress effects varied with cultivar and accumulated stress.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Material
- cultivare0
- Outcome
- observed impact of heat stresse0
- Direction
- variede0
- Qualifier
- accumulated heat stresse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress”
Claim · model-written summary
Each heat degree day reduced grain filling duration.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- heat degree dayse0
- Outcome
- grain filling duratione0
- Direction
- reducede0
- Value
- 0.30-0.60%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30.”
Claim · model-written summary
Each heat degree day reduced aboveground biomass.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- heat degree dayse0
- Outcome
- total aboveground biomasse0
- Direction
- reducede0
- Value
- 0.37-0.43%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30.”
Claim · model-written summary
Each heat degree day reduced grain yield.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- heat degree dayse0
- Outcome
- grain yielde0
- Direction
- reducede0
- Value
- 1.0-1.6%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30.”
Claim · model-written summary
Each heat degree day increased Yangmai16 GPC.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Material
- cv Yangmai16e0
- Treatment
- heat degree dayse0
- Outcome
- GPCe0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 0.50%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30.”
Claim · model-written summary
Each heat degree day increased Xumai30 GPC.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Material
- cv Xumai30e0
- Treatment
- heat degree dayse0
- Outcome
- GPCe0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 0.80%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30.”
Claim · model-written summary
Models reproduced some observed heat stress responses.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- reproduce some of the observed reductionse0
- Qualifier
- increase in GPCe0
- Comparator
- observed reductionse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase in GPC due to heat stress”
Claim · model-written summary
Most models represented heat impacts better during grain filling.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- reproduce heat stress impactse0
- Direction
- bettere0
- Comparator
- at anthesise0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors recommend improving model heat responses during grain filling and anthesis.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesise0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis”
Claim · model-written summary
Future simulations should represent genetic variation through cultivar parameters.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studiese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat crop models”
e0“The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies”
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See all 309 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.