Abstract
Abstract The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO 2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO 2 effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.
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Claims 10
Claim · model-written summary
The CERES (winter wheat) and CROPGRO (soybean) models were validated for the region: simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with measured data.
- Taxon
- winter wheat and soybean
Glycine max
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- simulated winter wheat and soybean yieldse0
- Direction
- agreede0
- Comparator
- measured datae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data”
Claim · model-written summary
Warming is projected to decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops.
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops”
Claim · model-written summary
For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a simulated yield decrease.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- gradual increase in air temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease”
Claim · model-written summary
Incremental warming, especially combined with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield in simulations.
- Taxon
- soybeanGlycine maxe0
- Treatment
- Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitatione0
- Outcome
- soybean yielde0
- Direction
- highere0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield”
Claim · model-written summary
A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity.
- Taxon
- soybeanGlycine maxe0
- Treatment
- A drier climatee0
- Outcome
- soybean yielde0
- Direction
- reducee0
- Qualifier
- especially on soils with low water storage capacitye0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity”
Claim · model-written summary
All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, adjusting only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- transient GCM climate change scenariose0
- Outcome
- winter wheat yielde0
- Direction
- reductionse0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield”
Claim · model-written summary
When the direct effect of increased CO2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- increased levels of CO 2 concentratione0
- Outcome
- winter wheat yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“when the direct effect of increased levels of CO 2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region”
Claim · model-written summary
The simulated increase in soybean yield for the 21st century was attributed primarily to the positive impact of warming and especially the beneficial direct CO2 effect.
- Taxon
- soybeanGlycine maxe0
- Treatment
- warminge0
- Outcome
- simulated soybean yielde0
- Qualifier
- beneficial influence of the direct CO 2 effecte0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO 2 effect”
Claim · model-written summary
Changes in climate variability affected winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways.
- Taxon
- winter wheat and soybeanGlycine maxTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- Changes in climate variabilitye0
- Outcome
- yielde0
Not reportedComparatorDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways”
Claim · model-written summary
Adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date and winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.
- Taxon
- winter wheat and soybeanGlycine maxTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selectione0
- Outcome
- crop productione0
Not reportedComparatorDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century”
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See all 207 papers →8 of 9 groups shown: named compounds and organisms first, then groups whose results differ (checked claim by claim), then those with positive and negative results, then the smaller groups.
Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.