Abstract
A comparison of the performance of 5 wheat models (AFRCWHEAT2, CERES, NWHEAT, SIRIUS and SOILN) was carried out for 2 sites in Europe: Rothamsted. UK, and Seville, Spain. The aims of this study were (1) to compare predictions of wheat models for climate change scenarios, and (2) to investigate the effects of changes in climatic variability in climate change scenarios on model predictions. Simulations were run for climate change scenarios derived from a number of 2 X CO2 equilibrium and transient GCM (global circulation model) experiments. For most climate change scenarios the model results were broadly simildr. Where results differed, much of the difference could be explained by model sensitivity to climate and differences in initial conditions. Transient scenarios without changes in climatic variability usually resulted in large yield increases for Rothamsted and in nil to large yield increases for Seville. Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenario had a more profound effect on grain yield and resulted in a substantial decrease in mean yield with a strong Increase in yield variation at Seville. This was associated with the changes in the duration of dry spells and a redistribution of precipitation over the vegetation penod The results show that future studies of the effect of climate change on crop yields must cons~der changes in climatic variability as well as changes in mean climate.
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Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
The five wheat simulation models gave broadly similar results for most climate change scenarios.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivumt0 - Outcome
- model resultse1
- Qualifier
- For most climate change scenariose1
- Comparator
- 5 wheat models (AFRCWHEAT2, CERES, NWHEAT, SIRIUS and SOILN)e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e0“5 wheat models (AFRCWHEAT2, CERES, NWHEAT, SIRIUS and SOILN)”
e1“For most climate change scenarios the model results were broadly simildr”
Claim · model-written summary
Transient climate change scenarios without changes in climatic variability usually increased wheat yield at Rothamsted.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- Transient scenarios without changes in climatic variabilitye2
- Outcome
- yielde2
- Direction
- increasese2
- Qualifier
- largee2
- Setting
- Rothamstede2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e2“Transient scenarios without changes in climatic variability usually resulted in large yield increases for Rothamsted and in nil to large yield increases for Seville”
Claim · model-written summary
Transient climate change scenarios without changes in climatic variability gave nil to large wheat yield increases at Seville.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- Transient scenarios without changes in climatic variabilitye2
- Outcome
- yielde2
- Direction
- increasese2
- Qualifier
- nil to largee2
- Setting
- Sevillee2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e2“Transient scenarios without changes in climatic variability usually resulted in large yield increases for Rothamsted and in nil to large yield increases for Seville”
Claim · model-written summary
Incorporating changed climatic variability into the transient scenario substantially decreased mean wheat yield.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenarioe3
- Outcome
- mean yielde3
- Direction
- substantial decreasee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e3“Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenario had a more profound effect on grain yield and resulted in a substantial decrease in mean yield with a strong Increase in yield variation at Seville”
Claim · model-written summary
Incorporating changed climatic variability into the transient scenario strongly increased wheat yield variation at Seville.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenarioe3
- Outcome
- yield variatione3
- Direction
- Increasee3
- Qualifier
- stronge3
- Setting
- Sevillee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e3“Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenario had a more profound effect on grain yield and resulted in a substantial decrease in mean yield with a strong Increase in yield variation at Seville”
Claim · model-written summary
The increase in wheat yield variation at Seville is associated with changes in the duration of dry spells.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- changes in the duration of dry spellse4
- Outcome
- yield variatione3
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e3“Incorporation of changed climatic variability in the transient scenario had a more profound effect on grain yield and resulted in a substantial decrease in mean yield with a strong Increase in yield variation at Seville”
e4“This was associated with the changes in the duration of dry spells and a redistribution of precipitation over the vegetation penod”
Claim · model-written summary
Much of the difference between wheat models could be explained by model sensitivity to climate and differences in initial conditions.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- differencee5
- Qualifier
- model sensitivity to climate and differences in initial conditionse5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e5“Where results differed, much of the difference could be explained by model sensitivity to climate and differences in initial conditions”
Claim · model-written summary
Future studies of climate change effects on crop yields must consider changes in climatic variability as well as changes in mean climate.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- changes in climatic variabilitye6
- Qualifier
- future studies of the effect of climate change on crop yieldse7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat simulation models”
e6“changes in climatic variability as well as changes in mean climate”
e7“future studies of the effect of climate change on crop yields”
The same questions in other papers
climate site · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results
71 papers in the same direction as this paper · 79 in the opposite direction · 3 reporting no difference from an alternative
- negative
- negative
- negative
150 papers more in this group
See all 154 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.