Abstract
• Ten climate scenarios, combined with four management strategies, presented different negative consequences for almond trees. • The greatest reduction in yield occurred due to a substantial decrease in chill accumulation, accompanied by a significant increase in temperature between November and March. • An increase in average temperature during the pre-bloom period (February) is strongly negatively correlated with yield. Agriculture must adapt to the effects of climate change, with temperatures expected to rise in the coming decades. Deciduous fruit trees rely heavily on temperature regimes during dormancy, requiring low temperatures in winter and mild temperatures in early spring to exit this phase. This study aims to assess how high temperatures at different dormancy stages negatively impact on almond trees. To investigate this, mobile greenhouses were placed in the field for two seasons at different chill accumulation stages to alter dormancy progression in almond trees, simulating different future climate scenarios increasing temperatures. Additionally, various management strategies were tested, including intensive pruning and flower bud reduction, to determine their potential to minimize climate change effects, and early defoliation to not allow the tree accumulating all the carbohydrates reserves. The results showed that key yield components were affected in nearly all climate scenarios tested across both seasons. Insufficient chilling significantly reduced final yield, while increased temperatures in February, right before bloom, were equally detrimental for almond trees. Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees. Intensive pruning did not show significant differences improving yield and fruit set. Flower bud reduction increased fruit set, but it was not enough to improve final yield. These findings highlight high pre-bloom temperatures as a critical factor in almond performance and underscore the need to develop adaptive strategies to mitigate their negative effects in future climate change scenarios.
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Claims 10
Claim · model-written summary
Most tested climate scenarios affected almond yield components across both seasons.
- Taxon
- almond trees
Prunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“key yield components were affected in nearly all climate scenarios tested across both seasons”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Insufficient chilling significantly reduced almond final yield.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Insufficient chilling significantly reduced final yield”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Higher February temperatures harmed almond performance.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“increased temperatures in February, right before bloom, were equally detrimental for almond trees”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Early defoliation increased abnormal flower percentage.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Early defoliation decreased almond fruit set.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Early defoliation reduced almond yield versus untreated trees.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Intensive pruning did not significantly improve almond yield.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Intensive pruning did not show significant differences improving yield and fruit set”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Intensive pruning did not significantly improve almond fruit set.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Intensive pruning did not show significant differences improving yield and fruit set”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Flower bud reduction increased almond fruit set.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Flower bud reduction increased fruit set”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
Claim · model-written summary
Flower bud reduction did not improve final almond yield.
- Taxon
- almond treesPrunus dulcise0t0e1e2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Flower bud reduction increased fruit set, but it was not enough to improve final yield”
t0“almond”
e1“Early defoliation decreased fruit set by increasing abnormal flower percentages and reducing yield compared with non-treated trees”
e2“were equally detrimental for almond trees”
The same questions in other papers
pruning · yield · Prunus dulcis (almond)Positive and negative results
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cold · yield · Prunus dulcis (almond)Results agree
1 paper in the same direction as this paper
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Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.