Abstract
The study assessed the seasonal potential effect of temperature and rainfall variability on MR219 using Ceres rice model v4.6.1.0 of the DSSAT modelling system. The model simulated sensibly rice yield with RMSPE OF 8.9%, with D- Index for grain yield of 0.99. However, the simulated yield positively correlates with observed yield (r = 0.715; p < .05), while the coefficient of determination (r2 = 0.511). The model predicted changes in rice yield in all the three granary areas with varying degrees of gains and losses in the two seasons. The result from sensitivity analysis showed that during the main season +10C rise in the maximum temperature caused decrease in yield from -0.2 to -4.5% for MADA and KADA.A rise in maximum temperature up to +50C caused decrease in the yield ranging from -3.3 to -14.3 % for all the areas. Minimum temperature increase of +10C resulted in decrease in the yield ranging from -1.3 to -3.5%. During the off season, +10C increase in temperature caused decrease in yield from -0.5 to -2.3% for MADA and IADA. A rise in +30C maximum temperature caused decrease in the yieldranging from -2.5 to -7.5% for all the areas. While +10C rise in minimum temperature caused decrease in the yield from -3.1 to -6.6% for all the areas. Increase or decrease in the mean daily rainfall could be both beneficial as well as destructive depending on the season and location. The result showed that increase in mean daily rainfall of +1mm to +2mm decrease yield ranging from -4.0% to -51.5%. For MADA decrease in daily rainfall of 1mm to 2mm was shown to increase yield up to about 5.4%. In IADA, BLS during the main season decrease in the rainfall up to -7mm caused increased in yield from 6% to 7.2%. During the off season +1mm to +2mm increase in mean daily rainfall caused increased in yield ranging from 0.9% to 2.0%, but decrease in the mean daily rainfall caused yield to decreased ranging from -9.5% to -44.8%. For KADA, Kelantan during the main season increase or decrease in the rainfall decrease yield ranging from -4.4% to -22%. During off season, increase or decrease in the mean daily rainfall caused the yield to decrease ranging from -1.0% to -43.0%. Result from Analysis of variance revealed that under the likely changing condition, productivity in IADA will still likely be higher than in MADA, while KADA being the least will certainly continue to be more vulnerable to these changes than the other two granary areas.
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Claims 18
Claim · model-written summary
The rice model achieved 8.9% RMSPE.
Verbatim
e0“The model simulated sensibly rice yield with RMSPE OF 8.9%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
The rice model had a grain yield D-Index of 0.99.
Verbatim
e0“with D- Index for grain yield of 0.99”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated yield correlated positively with observed yield.
Verbatim
e0“the simulated yield positively correlates with observed yield (r = 0.715; p < .05)”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
The coefficient of determination was 0.511.
Verbatim
e0“the coefficient of determination (r2 = 0.511)”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Main season maximum temperature rise of +10C reduced yield by -0.2 to -4.5% in MADA and KADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- +10C rise in the maximum temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -0.2 to -4.5%e0
- Setting
- MADA and KADAe0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“during the main season +10C rise in the maximum temperature caused decrease in yield from -0.2 to -4.5% for MADA and KADA”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Maximum temperature rise up to +50C reduced yield by -3.3 to -14.3% in all areas.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- maximum temperature up to +50Ce0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -3.3 to -14.3 %e0
- Setting
- all the arease0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“A rise in maximum temperature up to +50C caused decrease in the yield ranging from -3.3 to -14.3 % for all the areas”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Minimum temperature rise of +10C reduced yield by -1.3 to -3.5%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- Minimum temperature increase of +10Ce0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -1.3 to -3.5%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“Minimum temperature increase of +10C resulted in decrease in the yield ranging from -1.3 to -3.5%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season temperature rise of +10C reduced yield by -0.5 to -2.3% in MADA and IADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- +10C increase in temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -0.5 to -2.3%e0
- Setting
- MADA and IADAe0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“During the off season, +10C increase in temperature caused decrease in yield from -0.5 to -2.3% for MADA and IADA”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season maximum temperature rise of +30C reduced yield by -2.5 to -7.5%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- +30C maximum temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -2.5 to -7.5%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“A rise in +30C maximum temperature caused decrease in the yieldranging from -2.5 to -7.5% for all the areas”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season minimum temperature rise of +10C reduced yield by -3.1 to -6.6%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- +10C rise in minimum temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -3.1 to -6.6%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“+10C rise in minimum temperature caused decrease in the yield from -3.1 to -6.6% for all the areas”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Higher daily rainfall of +1mm to +2mm reduced yield by -4.0% to -51.5%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- increase in mean daily rainfall of +1mm to +2mme0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -4.0% to -51.5%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“increase in mean daily rainfall of +1mm to +2mm decrease yield ranging from -4.0% to -51.5%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Lower daily rainfall of 1mm to 2mm raised yield up to 5.4% in MADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- decrease in daily rainfall of 1mm to 2mme0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 5.4%e0
- Setting
- MADAe0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“For MADA decrease in daily rainfall of 1mm to 2mm was shown to increase yield up to about 5.4%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Main season rainfall reduction up to -7mm raised yield by 6% to 7.2% in IADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- decrease in the rainfall up to -7mme0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 6% to 7.2%e0
- Setting
- IADA, BLSe0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“In IADA, BLS during the main season decrease in the rainfall up to -7mm caused increased in yield from 6% to 7.2%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season rainfall rise of +1mm to +2mm raised yield by 0.9% to 2.0%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- +1mm to +2mm increase in mean daily rainfalle0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 0.9% to 2.0%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“During the off season +1mm to +2mm increase in mean daily rainfall caused increased in yield ranging from 0.9% to 2.0%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season rainfall reduction lowered yield by -9.5% to -44.8%.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- decrease in the mean daily rainfalle0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -9.5% to -44.8%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“decrease in the mean daily rainfall caused yield to decreased ranging from -9.5% to -44.8%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Main season rainfall changes reduced yield by -4.4% to -22% in KADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- increase or decrease in the rainfalle0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -4.4% to -22%e0
- Setting
- KADA, Kelantane0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“For KADA, Kelantan during the main season increase or decrease in the rainfall decrease yield ranging from -4.4% to -22%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Off season rainfall changes reduced yield by -1.0% to -43.0% in KADA.
- Taxon
- paddy ricet0
- Treatment
- increase or decrease in the mean daily rainfalle0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- -1.0% to -43.0%e0
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e0“During off season, increase or decrease in the mean daily rainfall caused the yield to decrease ranging from -1.0% to -43.0%”
t0“paddy rice”
Claim · model-written summary
IADA productivity was projected higher than MADA, with KADA lowest and most vulnerable.
Verbatim
e0“productivity in IADA will still likely be higher than in MADA, while KADA being the least will certainly continue to be more vulnerable to these changes than the other two granary areas”
t0“paddy rice”
The same questions in other papers
rainfall · yield · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
28 papers in the same direction as this paper · 21 in the opposite direction · 1 reporting no difference from an alternative
- negative
- negative
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47 papers more in this group
See all 51 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.