Abstract
Abstract The performance of novel genetic combinations under untested environmental scenarios and management practices can be virtually examined using process‐based crop models. Indeed, there has been a long‐standing interest in the crop modeling community to expand the utility of process‐based models to broader germplasm panels (e.g., breeding lines or diversity panels). Yet, there is often a misalignment between data needed to parameterize process‐based crop models and data routinely collected by breeding programs. To address this gap, we leverage a dataset from a long‐term trial on advanced experimental lines and released varieties from the Louisiana rice breeding program to calibrate and evaluate the decision support for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CSM‐CERES‐Rice model. Next, we use data collected by the same program on a large collection of breeding lines to generate numerous in silico genotypes and evaluate their performance across different management practices (different planting dates) and three climatic conditions (current climate and two future scenarios based on CMIP6‐SSP5‐8.5 climate projections). Our simulations indicate that shifting the current planting date (i.e., March) back by 1–2 months (to January) under moderate warming conditions (+1.3°C warmer and 41% higher CO 2 level), and 2–3 months (to December) under extreme warming conditions (+4.1°C warmer and 133% higher CO 2 level) could potentially offset the negative impacts of the increased future temperature. Given earlier planting, shorter duration varieties (i.e., those with shorter growing degree day requirements during the vegetative and grain filling periods) are found to be more favorable for supporting high yields. Such varieties with a shorter thermal time to anthesis are found to remain just outside of the current pool of variation for this trait. Opportunities and challenges for leveraging breeding data in process‐based modeling to derive insights into adaptation strategies for future climates are further discussed.
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Claims 4
Claim · model-written summary
Under moderate warming, planting in January instead of March could offset negative temperature effects.
- Taxon
- rice
Oryza sativat0 - Treatment
- shifting the current planting date (i.e., March) back by 1–2 months (to January)e0
- Outcome
- negative impacts of the increased future temperaturee0
- Direction
- offsete0
- Qualifier
- under moderate warming conditions (+1.3°C warmer and 41% higher CO 2 level)e0
- Comparator
- Marche0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“shifting the current planting date (i.e., March) back by 1–2 months (to January) under moderate warming conditions (+1.3°C warmer and 41% higher CO 2 level), and 2–3 months (to December) under extreme warming conditions (+4.1°C warmer and 133% higher CO 2 level) could potentially offset the negative impacts of the increased future temperature.”
t0“rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Under extreme warming, planting in December instead of March could offset negative temperature effects.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativat0
- Treatment
- 2–3 months (to December)e0
- Outcome
- negative impacts of the increased future temperaturee0
- Direction
- offsete0
- Qualifier
- under extreme warming conditions (+4.1°C warmer and 133% higher CO 2 level)e0
- Comparator
- Marche0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“shifting the current planting date (i.e., March) back by 1–2 months (to January) under moderate warming conditions (+1.3°C warmer and 41% higher CO 2 level), and 2–3 months (to December) under extreme warming conditions (+4.1°C warmer and 133% higher CO 2 level) could potentially offset the negative impacts of the increased future temperature.”
t0“rice”
Claim · model-written summary
With earlier planting, shorter duration varieties were more favorable for high yields.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativat0
- Material
- shorter duration varietiese0
- Outcome
- high yieldse0
- Direction
- more favorablee0
- Qualifier
- Given earlier plantinge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Given earlier planting, shorter duration varieties (i.e., those with shorter growing degree day requirements during the vegetative and grain filling periods) are found to be more favorable for supporting high yields.”
t0“rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Varieties with shorter thermal time to anthesis fell just outside the current trait variation pool.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativat0
- Material
- varieties with a shorter thermal time to anthesise0
- Outcome
- just outside of the current pool of variation for this traite0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Such varieties with a shorter thermal time to anthesis are found to remain just outside of the current pool of variation for this trait.”
t0“rice”
The same questions in other papers
sowing time · soil: physics · Oryza sativa (rice)Positive and negative results
1 paper in the same direction as this paper · 2 in the opposite direction
- negative
- no effect
- positive
Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.