Abstract
In northern China, precipitation that is primarily concentrated during the fallow period is insufficient for the growth stage, creates a moisture shortage, and leads to low, unstable yields. Yield prediction in the early growth stages significantly informs field management decisions for winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.). A 10-year field experiment carried out in the Loess Plateau area tested how three tillage practices (deep ploughing (DP), subsoiling (SS), and no tillage (NT)) influenced cultivation and yield across different fallow periods. The experiment used the random forest (RF) algorithm to construct a prediction model of yields and yield components. Our results revealed that tillage during the fallow period was more effective than NT in improving yield in dryland wheat. Under drought condition, DP during the fallow period achieved a higher yield than SS, especially in drought years; DP was 16% higher than SS. RF was deemed fit for yield prediction across different precipitation years. An RF model was developed using meteorological factors for fixed variables and soil water storage after tillage during a fallow period for a control variable. Small error values existed in the prediction yield, spike number, and grains number per spike. Additionally, the relative error of crop yield under fallow tillage (5.24%) was smaller than that of NT (6.49%). The prediction error of relative meteorological yield was minimum and optimal, indicating that the model is suitable to explain the influence of meteorological factors on yield.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Fallow tillage improved dryland wheat yield relative to no tillage.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Treatment
- tillage during the fallow periode0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- improvinge0
- Comparator
- NTe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“tillage during the fallow period was more effective than NT in improving yield in dryland wheat.”
Claim · model-written summary
Deep ploughing yielded 16% more than subsoiling in drought years.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Treatment
- DPe0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- highere0
- Value
- 16%e0
- Qualifier
- drought yearse0
- Comparator
- SSe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Under drought condition, DP during the fallow period achieved a higher yield than SS, especially in drought years; DP was 16% higher than SS.”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Random forest was judged fit for yield prediction across precipitation years.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- yield predictione0
- Comparator
- different precipitation yearse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“RF was deemed fit for yield prediction across different precipitation years.”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Predicted yield, spike number, and grains per spike had small errors.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- prediction yield, spike number, and grains number per spikee0
- Value
- Small error valuese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Small error values existed in the prediction yield, spike number, and grains number per spike.”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Relative crop yield error was 5.24% under fallow tillage.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- relative error of crop yielde0
- Direction
- smallere0
- Value
- 5.24%e0
- Comparator
- NTe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the relative error of crop yield under fallow tillage (5.24%) was smaller than that of NT (6.49%).”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Relative crop yield error was 6.49% under no tillage.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- relative error of crop yielde0
- Value
- 6.49%e0
- Comparator
- fallow tillagee0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the relative error of crop yield under fallow tillage (5.24%) was smaller than that of NT (6.49%).”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Relative meteorological yield prediction error was minimal.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- prediction error of relative meteorological yielde0
- Direction
- minimume0
- Value
- minimume0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The prediction error of relative meteorological yield was minimum and optimal, indicating that the model is suitable to explain the influence of meteorological factors on yield.”
t0“winter wheat”
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