Abstract
Abstract One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US $ ha −1 yr −1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non‐climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Maize production declined by 21%–29% on translocated soils compared with local soil.
- Material
- traditionally grown varietiese2
- Treatment
- new soil conditionse0
- Outcome
- Maize productione0
- Direction
- declinede0
- Value
- 21%–29%e0
- Comparator
- local soile2
- Setting
- Peruvian Andese2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions”
e2“in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations”
Claim · model-written summary
Maize production declined by more than 87% under warmer temperatures, mainly because of novel pests.
- Treatment
- warmer temperaturese3
- Outcome
- production of maizee3
- Direction
- declinede3
- Value
- >87%e3
- Qualifier
- mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pestse3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations”
e3“The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests”
Claim · model-written summary
Potato production declined by more than 87% under warmer temperatures, mainly because of novel pests.
- Taxon
- potatoes
Solanum tuberosume3 - Treatment
- warmer temperaturese3
- Outcome
- productione3
- Direction
- declinede3
- Value
- >87%e3
- Qualifier
- mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pestse3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations”
e3“The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests”
Claim · model-written summary
Crop quality and value of potato and maize declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios.
- Taxon
- potato and maizeSolanum tuberosum
Zea mayse2 - Treatment
- simulated migration and warming scenariose4
- Outcome
- Crop quality and valuee4
- Direction
- declinede4
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations”
e4“Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
Local farmers may face economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ per hectare per year from the simulated scenarios.
- Taxon
- potato and maizeSolanum tuberosumZea mayse2
- Outcome
- economic lossese5
- Value
- 2,300 US $ ha −1 yr −1e5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations”
e5“We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US $ ha −1 yr −1”
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heat · quality: general · Solanum tuberosum (potato)Positive and negative results
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soil · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results
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See all 25 papers →heat · quality: general · Zea mays (maize)Results agree
5 papers in the same direction as this paper
- negative
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See all 6 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.