Abstract
About 70% of Brazil's farm output is produced in the Cerrado region. The climate is sub-humid tropical, typical of the rather moister savanna regions of the world. Climate changes will have a severe impact on the agricultural sector in this region. A temperature increase of between 2 °C and 4 °C by the end of the century has been predicted. Model projections for future rainfall under high emission scenarios suggest a decrease of 20% to 40% of current values. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on maize yields in the Cerrado. To do so, we used the crop growth model STICS that was calibrated and tested against crop and soil data from an agronomic field trial at the experimental station of Embrapa Cerrados. The simulations covered present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario (2011-2050, 2051-2100). Climate change projections were generated using the Eta CCS regional climate model nested in the global model HadAM3P. Two systems were simulated: maize under conventional tillage and under no-tillage. We simulated water-limited yields for a typical local maize cultivar for 12 sowing dates and for two soil types, representing a scenario of low and high plant-available soil water storage capacity. STICS satisfactorily reproduced the growth and development of maize and the soil water dynamics of the experiment. Crop yields were highest under no-tillage. This cropping system uses most efficiently the seasonal rainfall as a result of reduced surface water run-off and soil evaporation, and also presents the greatest year-to-year yield stability. Future higher temperatures cause a significant decrease in the growing period of maize (an average of 20 days) leading to lower total biomass and grain production. Due to future decreased rainfall and increased risk of longer dry spells the sowing windows for optimal yields become smaller, especially under the conventional tillage system. (Texte integral)
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Maize yields were highest under no-tillage compared with conventional tillage in the Cerrado (simulated).
- Treatment
- no-tillagee2
- Outcome
- Crop yieldse1
- Direction
- higheste1
- Comparator
- conventional tillagee2
- Setting
- Cerradoe0
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“to assess the impact of climate change on maize yields in the Cerrado”
e1“Crop yields were highest under no-tillage”
e2“Two systems were simulated: maize under conventional tillage and under no-tillage”
Claim · model-written summary
No-tillage uses seasonal rainfall most efficiently, as a result of reduced surface run-off and soil evaporation (author interpretation).
- Outcome
- uses most efficiently the seasonal rainfalle6
- Qualifier
- reduced surface water run-off and soil evaporatione6
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“Two systems were simulated: maize under conventional tillage and under no-tillage”
e6“This cropping system uses most efficiently the seasonal rainfall as a result of reduced surface water run-off and soil evaporation”
Claim · model-written summary
No-tillage gives the greatest year-to-year yield stability of maize compared with conventional tillage (simulated).
- Treatment
- no-tillagee2
- Outcome
- year-to-year yield stabilitye7
- Direction
- greateste7
- Comparator
- conventional tillagee2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“Two systems were simulated: maize under conventional tillage and under no-tillage”
e7“presents the greatest year-to-year yield stability”
Claim · model-written summary
Future higher temperatures are associated with a significant decrease of about 20 days in the growing period of maize.
- Treatment
- Future higher temperaturese3
- Outcome
- growing period of maizee3
- Direction
- decreasee3
- Value
- an average of 20 dayse3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Future higher temperatures cause a significant decrease in the growing period of maize (an average of 20 days) leading to lower total biomass and grain production”
Claim · model-written summary
Future higher temperatures are associated with lower total biomass and grain production of maize.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Future higher temperatures cause a significant decrease in the growing period of maize (an average of 20 days) leading to lower total biomass and grain production”
Claim · model-written summary
Future decreased rainfall and longer dry-spell risk make optimal sowing windows smaller, especially under conventional tillage.
- Treatment
- future decreased rainfall and increased risk of longer dry spellse4
- Outcome
- sowing windows for optimal yieldse4
- Direction
- smallere4
- Qualifier
- especially under the conventional tillage systeme4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“Two systems were simulated: maize under conventional tillage and under no-tillage”
e4“Due to future decreased rainfall and increased risk of longer dry spells the sowing windows for optimal yields become smaller, especially under the conventional tillage system”
Claim · model-written summary
STICS satisfactorily reproduced the growth, development and soil water dynamics of maize in the experiment.
- Outcome
- growth and development of maize and the soil water dynamicse5
- Qualifier
- satisfactorilye5
- Comparator
- the experimente5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“STICS satisfactorily reproduced the growth and development of maize and the soil water dynamics of the experiment”
The same questions in other papers
tillage · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results
811 papers in the same direction as this paper · 230 in the opposite direction · 57 reporting no difference from an alternative
- no effect
- negative
- no effect
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See all 1,099 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.