Abstract
BACKGROUND: Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.
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Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
Roadside alfalfa populations may persist and are less likely to go extinct under current management.
- Taxon
- alfalfa
Medicago sativae0 - Outcome
- persistent and less likely to go extincte0
- Qualifier
- under current roadverge management scenariose0
- Setting
- roadside habitatse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
Controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive because of density dependence.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae1
- Treatment
- controlling adult plants alonee0
- Outcome
- counterproductivee0
- Direction
- counterproductivee0
- Qualifier
- density-dependent effectse0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects”
e1“roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada”
Claim · model-written summary
Targeted herbicide application can completely control seedlings, rosettes and established plants.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae1
- Treatment
- Targeted herbicide applicatione0
- Outcome
- control of seedlings, rosettes and established plantse0
- Direction
- complete controle0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy”
e1“roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada”
Claim · model-written summary
The seedbank may supply new recruits after targeted herbicide control.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae1
- Outcome
- new recruitse0
- Qualifier
- seedbank populatione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits”
e1“roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada”
Claim · model-written summary
Timely mowing that prevents seed production is a feasible feral alfalfa management option in southern Manitoba.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae0
- Outcome
- timely mowing strategye0
- Qualifier
- early- to mid-Auguste0
- Setting
- southern Manitobae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations”
Claim · model-written summary
Timely mowing or targeted herbicide application can limit feral population mediated gene flow.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae0
- Outcome
- Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide applicatione0
- Qualifier
- limit feral-population-mediated gene flowe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa”
Claim · model-written summary
Management extent should depend on trait-specific production-system tolerance levels.
- Taxon
- alfalfaMedicago sativae0
- Outcome
- extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managede0
- Qualifier
- tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traitse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits”
Claim · model-written summary
The model framework could apply to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life histories.
Verbatim
e0“The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics”
The same questions in other papers
herbicide · control · Medicago sativa (alfalfa)Positive and negative results
2 papers in the same direction as this paper · 1 reporting no difference from an alternative
- no effect
- positive
- positive
Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.