Claim · model-written summary
Wheat yield is projected to decrease 10–30% in southern counties under RCP 8.5.
Triticum aestivumVerbatim
e0“wheat vulnerability was concentrated in southern counties, with projected yield decreases of 10–30% under RCP 8.5 relative to the 1991–2020 baseline”
Title
Ahmed Attia; Prem Woli; Charles R. Long; et al. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 2025. doi:10.1007/s40808-025-02605-7
Other claims from this paper (9)
- Observation Wheat yield is projected to increase 30–50% in northern counties under RCP 4.5 by mid-century and RCP 8.5 by end-century.
- Observation Cotton yields are projected to rise 20–40% across most counties under specified future scenarios.
- Observation Cotton may face localized vulnerability in southwestern THP under RCP 8.5 at end-century.
- Observation Sorghum yields are projected to rise 10–20% in eastern and northern counties under RCP 4.5.
- Observation Sorghum yields are projected to decline more than 40% under RCP 8.5 by end-century.
- Mechanism Sorghum yield reductions are attributed to less rainfall and more temperature stress.
- Observation Maize showed spatially variable yield changes, with positive trends in several southern counties.
- Association Localized maize yield increases were associated with projected precipitation increases during the growing season.
- Recommendation Earlier sorghum planting could potentially mitigate adverse heat effects.