Abstract
Cotton production is highly vulnerable to climate change, and heat stress is a major constraint in the cotton zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Adaptation is perceived as a critical step to deal with forecasted and unexpected climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to standardize and authenticate a cotton crop model based on climate and crop husbandry data in order to develop an adaptation package for cotton crop production in the wake of climate change. For the study, the data were collected from the cotton-growing areas of Punjab, viz. Bahawalpur and Khanewal. After the calibration and validation against field data, the Cropping System Model CSM–CROPGRO–Cotton in the shell of the decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) was run with a future climate generated under two representative concentrations pathways (RCPs), viz. RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with five global circulation models (GCMs). The whole study showed that a model is an artistic tool for examining the temporal variation in cotton and determining the potential impact of planting dates on crop growth, phenology, and yield. The results showed that the future climate would have drastic effects on cotton production in the project area. Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios. The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future. The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate. Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.
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Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
Future RCP 4.5 reduced seed cotton yield by 25.7%.
- Taxon
- Cotton
Gossypium hirsutumt0 - Treatment
- RCPs 4.5e0
- Outcome
- seed cotton yielde0
- Direction
- Reductione0
- Value
- 25.7%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Future RCP 8.5 reduced seed cotton yield by 32.2%.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- 8.5e0
- Outcome
- seed cotton yielde0
- Direction
- Reductione0
- Value
- 32.2%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Hot and wet climate was more damaging to cotton than other scenarios.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- damaginge0
- Direction
- more damaginge0
- Comparator
- other scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Increasing nitrogen by 10% was identified as part of the best future strategy.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant populatione0
- Outcome
- best strategye0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Planting 15 days earlier with fertigation was suggested to improve yield with 10% less water.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation)e0
- Outcome
- improve yielde0
- Qualifier
- 10% less watere0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
The adaptation package recovered 33% of seed cotton yield damage under RCP 4.5.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- proposed adaptation packagee0
- Outcome
- damages in SCYe0
- Direction
- recovere0
- Value
- 33%e0
- Comparator
- RCP 4.5e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
The adaptation package recovered 37% of seed cotton yield damage under RCP 8.5.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- proposed adaptation packagee0
- Outcome
- damages in SCYe0
- Direction
- recovere0
- Value
- 37%e0
- Comparator
- 8.5e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.”
t0“Cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
The package increased crop yield by 7.5% over current baseline yield.
- Taxon
- CottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- proposed packagee0
- Outcome
- crop yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 7.5%e0
- Comparator
- baseline (current) yielde0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.”
t0“Cotton”
The same questions in other papers
storage · yield · Gossypium hirsutum (cotton)Positive and negative results
14 papers in the same direction as this paper · 1 in the opposite direction · 1 reporting no difference from an alternative
- no effect
- no effect
- positive
13 papers more in this group
See all 17 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.