Abstract
Abstract The legality of wood products often depends on their origin, creating a need for forensic tools that verify claims of provenance for wood products. The neotropical tree species Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar) is economically valuable for its wood and faces threats of overexploitation. We developed a 140 SNP assay for geographic localization of C. odorata specimens. Target capture and short-read sequencing of 46 C. odorata specimens allowed us to identify 140 spatially informative SNPs that differentiate C. odorata specimens by latitude, temperature, and precipitation. We assessed the broad applicability of these SNPs on 356 specimens from eight Cedrela species, three tissue types, and a range of DNA mass inputs. Origin prediction error was evaluated with discrete and continuous spatial assignment methods focusing on C. odorata specimens. Discrete classification with random forests readily differentiated specimens originating in Central America versus South America (5.8% error), while uncertainty increased as specimens were divided into smaller regions. Continuous spatial prediction with SPASIBA showed a median prediction error of 188.7 km. Our results demonstrate that array SNPs and resulting genotypes accurately validate C. odorata geographic origin at the continental scale and show promise for country-level verification, but that finer-scale assignment likely requires denser spatial sampling. Our study underscores the important role of herbaria for developing genomic resources, and joins a growing list of studies that highlight the role of genomic tools for conservation of threatened species.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
The assay identified 140 spatially informative SNPs.
- Taxon
- Cedrela odorata
Cedrela odoratae1 - Outcome
- spatially informative SNPse0
- Value
- 140e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“identify 140 spatially informative SNPs that differentiate C. odorata specimens by latitude, temperature, and precipitation”
e1“Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar)”
Claim · model-written summary
Random forests classified Central versus South American specimens with 5.8% error.
- Taxon
- Cedrela odorata
Cedrela odoratae1 - Outcome
- errore0
- Value
- 5.8%e0
- Comparator
- Central America versus South Americae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Discrete classification with random forests readily differentiated specimens originating in Central America versus South America (5.8% error)”
e1“Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar)”
Claim · model-written summary
Classification uncertainty increased for smaller regions.
- Taxon
- Cedrela odorata
Cedrela odoratae1 - Outcome
- uncertaintye0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Comparator
- smaller regionse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“uncertainty increased as specimens were divided into smaller regions”
e1“Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar)”
Claim · model-written summary
SPASIBA had median spatial prediction error of 188.7 km.
- Taxon
- Cedrela odorata
Cedrela odoratae1 - Outcome
- median prediction errore0
- Value
- 188.7 kme0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Continuous spatial prediction with SPASIBA showed a median prediction error of 188.7 km”
e1“Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar)”
Claim · model-written summary
Finer-scale assignment likely requires denser spatial sampling.
- Taxon
- Cedrela odorata
Cedrela odoratae1 - Outcome
- denser spatial samplinge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“finer-scale assignment likely requires denser spatial sampling”
e1“Cedrela odorata (Spanish cedar)”