Paper · 2019 · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

Using a Crop Modeling Framework for Precision Cost-Benefit Analysis of Variable Seeding and Nitrogen Application Rates

Gabriel McNunn; Emily Heaton; Sotirios Archontoulis; et al.

7
claims
15
verbatim quotes
52
citations
2
research areas
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Open access · cc-by

Abstract

A key goal of precision agriculture is to achieve the maximum crop yield while minimizing inputs and loses from cropping systems. The challenge of precision agriculture is these factors interact with one another on a subfield scale. The seeding density and the nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rate are two of the most important inputs influencing agronomic, economic and environmental outcomes including yield, return on investment (ROI) and nitrate (NO3-) leaching. A cropping system simulation framework is used to predict site-specific subfield optimum seeding density and (N) fertilizer application rates for the economic optimum (maximum ROI) versus agronomic optimum (maximum yield). The framework couples the process-based APSIM cropping system model with the SSURGO soils database, Daymet weather data service, land grant university estimates of crop production costs and commodity price estimates, and the R statistics software. The framework performance was evaluated using multiple years of precision yield monitor data obtained from a continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system field experiment with varying N-fertilizer rates. Subfield model estimates of crop yield were sensitive to initial conditions related to historical management of the field and had an r2 = 0.65 and a root mean square error of 2356.0 kg ha-1. A site-specific application of the framework comparing economic optimum seeding density and N-fertilizer rates with agronomic optimum values estimated the average ROI benefit to be up to 12.1% with a NO3- leaching reduction of up to 15.2 kg ha-1 at the economic optimum. However, in a minority of cases NO3- leaching was greater at the economic optimum, indicating that managing to maximize ROI rather than yield may not always reduce environmental impacts. Our results suggest that managing cropping systems for the economic optimum is plausible using publicly available data with our framework and may likely lead to improved environmental outcomes.

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The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.

Claims 7

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultsimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Subfield yield estimates were sensitive to initial conditions related to past field management.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Outcome
Subfield model estimates of crop yielde1
Qualifier
initial conditions related to historical management of the fielde1

Not reportedComparatorValue

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“Subfield model estimates of crop yield were sensitive to initial conditions related to historical management of the field”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1148–1269 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The model had r2 = 0.65 for subfield crop yield estimates.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Outcome
crop yielde1
Value
r2 = 0.65e1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“Subfield model estimates of crop yield were sensitive to initial conditions related to historical management of the field and had an r2 = 0.65 and a root mean square error of 2356.0 kg ha-1”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1148–1337 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The model root mean square error for yield was 2356.0 kg ha-1.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Outcome
root mean square errore1
Value
2356.0 kg ha-1e1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“root mean square error of 2356.0 kg ha-1”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1297–1337 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Economic optimum seeding and nitrogen rates raised mean ROI by up to 12.1% compared with agronomic optima.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Treatment
economic optimum seeding density and N-fertilizer ratese1
Outcome
average ROI benefite1
Direction
benefite1
Value
up to 12.1%e1
Comparator
agronomic optimum valuese1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“comparing economic optimum seeding density and N-fertilizer rates with agronomic optimum values estimated the average ROI benefit to be up to 12.1%”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1384–1531 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Economic optimum rates lowered nitrate leaching by up to 15.2 kg ha-1 compared with agronomic optima.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Treatment
economic optimum seeding density and N-fertilizer ratese1
Outcome
NO3- leachinge1
Direction
reductione1
Value
up to 15.2 kg ha-1e1
Comparator
agronomic optimum valuese1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“comparing economic optimum seeding density and N-fertilizer rates with agronomic optimum values estimated the average ROI benefit to be up to 12.1% with a NO3- leaching reduction of up to 15.2 kg ha-1 at the economic optimum”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1384–1608 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

In a minority of cases nitrate leaching was greater at the economic optimum.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Treatment
economic optimume1
Outcome
NO3- leachinge1
Direction
greatere1
Qualifier
in a minority of casese1
Comparator
agronomic optimume2

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“in a minority of cases NO3- leaching was greater at the economic optimum”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1619–1691 · show in text ↑
e2

“economic optimum (maximum ROI) versus agronomic optimum (maximum yield)”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 621–692 · show in text ↑
Recommendationauthor interpretationoriginal resultbasis n/a

Claim · model-written summary

The authors suggest economic optimum management is plausible with public data and may improve environmental outcomes.

Taxon
maize (Zea mays L.)Zea mayse0
Outcome
managing cropping systems for the economic optimume1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“continuous maize (Zea mays L.) cropping system”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1051–1097 · show in text ↑
e1

“managing cropping systems for the economic optimum is plausible using publicly available data with our framework and may likely lead to improved environmental outcomes”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1822–1989 · show in text ↑

nitrogen · environment: emissions · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results

66 papers: 45 positive, 21 negative or no effect

44 papers in the same direction as this paper · 21 in the opposite direction

  1. negative
  2. negative
  3. negative

62 papers more in this group

See all 66 papers →

density · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results

658 papers: 519 positive, 139 negative or no effect

518 papers in the same direction as this paper · 132 in the opposite direction · 7 reporting no difference from an alternative

  1. positive
  2. negative
  3. negative

654 papers more in this group

See all 658 papers →

nitrogen · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results

2,185 papers: 1,906 positive, 279 negative or no effect

1,905 papers in the same direction as this paper · 234 in the opposite direction · 45 reporting no difference from an alternative

  1. no effect
  2. negative
  3. no effect

2,181 papers more in this group

See all 2,185 papers →

density · environment: emissions · Zea mays (maize)Results agree

3 papers: 3 positive, 0 negative or no effect

2 papers in the same direction as this paper

  1. positive
  2. positive
See all 3 papers →

Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.