Abstract
Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere.
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Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
Heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the cooler northern wheat-growing regions than in the warmer southern regions of China.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- heat stress between heading and maturitye0
- Direction
- more severee0
- Comparator
- generally warmer southern regions of Chinae0
- Setting
- Chinae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China”
Claim · model-written summary
Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in recent decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- Heat stress between heading and maturitye0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Setting
- Chinae0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China”
Claim · model-written summary
The rate of increase in heat stress was higher in the south than in the north.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the rate was higher in the south than in the north”
t0“winter wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
Grain yield was significantly correlated with post-heading heat stress and average temperature across the entire wheat-producing region.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- post-heading heat stress and average temperaturee0
- Outcome
- measured grain yieldse0
- Setting
- entire wheat-producing regione0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability”
Claim · model-written summary
Post-heading heat stress and average temperature explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Treatment
- post-heading heat stress and average temperaturee0
- Outcome
- yield variabilitye0
- Value
- 29%e0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability”
Claim · model-written summary
A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation between heat stress and yield variability.
- Taxon
- winter wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variabilitye0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability”
t0“winter wheat”