Abstract
Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops. Previous projections of food security are often more optimistic than what historical yield trends would support. Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends. Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time. Furthermore, there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe, which account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production. Estimating future food production capacity would benefit from an analysis of past crop yield trends based on a robust statistical analysis framework that evaluates historical yield trajectories and plateaus.
Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record; open copy licensed cc-by. Read at the source ↗
The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends of major cereal crops.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e1“Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time”
Claim · model-written summary
The relative rate of yield gain of major cereal crops decreases over time.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e1“Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time”
Claim · model-written summary
Rice in eastern Asia shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Taxon
- rice
Oryza sativae2 - Outcome
- yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gaine2
- Setting
- eastern Asiae2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e2“there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat in northwest Europe shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume2 - Outcome
- yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gaine2
- Setting
- northwest Europee2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e2“there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
The regions with yield plateaus account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e3“which account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production”
Claim · model-written summary
Compound rates of yield gain assumed in many econometric projections are not consistent with historical yield trends.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e4“Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors recommend that estimates of future food production capacity be based on an analysis of past crop yield trends with a robust statistical framework.
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e5“Estimating future food production capacity would benefit from an analysis of past crop yield trends based on a robust statistical analysis framework”